Gold Market Sees Dramatic Shifts: Nonfarm Payrolls and "Big & Beautiful" Bill Trigger Market Tremors
On Sunday, July 6, 2025, the gold market experienced a dramatic week, with a series of major events sending prices on a rollercoaster ride.
Last Thursday, the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report became the focal point of market attention. The data unexpectedly surged, with job additions reaching 147,000—far exceeding market expectations—plunging the market into chaos. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Such robust employment figures drastically dampened market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut.
In financial markets, the Fed’s monetary policy direction has a critical impact on gold prices. Rate-cut expectations typically drive gold prices higher, as lower rates imply reduced real yields on currency, enhancing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset. Conversely, when rate-cut expectations cool, gold prices often face downward pressure. True to form, gold reacted swiftly after the nonfarm data release, plunging 1% on the spot, with prices briefly falling to $2,325 per ounce.
Yet, the market drama did not end there. On the same day, another major event unfolded—the "Big & Beautiful" bill, championed by former President Trump, narrowly passed the House of Representatives by a razor-thin margin of 218 to 214 votes, barely avoiding defeat. The bill’s passage once again shifted market dynamics. Although the specifics of the "Big & Beautiful" bill remain to be clarified, the market widely believes it could have far-reaching implications for the U.S. economy and global financial markets.
From the gold market’s perspective, the bill’s passage has heightened uncertainty. On one hand, the legislation could further stimulate the U.S. economy, bolstering the U.S. dollar and indirectly pressuring gold prices. On the other hand, potential market volatility during the bill’s implementation may drive investors toward safe-haven assets, benefiting gold as a traditional hedge. These conflicting expectations have intensified the tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the gold market.
For global investors, such extreme volatility in the gold market undoubtedly complicates investment decisions. Under the dual influence of the nonfarm payrolls and the "Big & Beautiful" bill, gold prices face heightened uncertainty in the short term. Some investors may opt to wait on the sidelines for clearer signals, while others with higher risk appetites may seek profit opportunities amid the turbulence.
At a macro level, these developments in the gold market reflect the complexity and sensitivity of the current global economy and financial markets. As the world’s largest economy, shifts in U.S. employment data and policy bills can swiftly send ripples across global financial markets. Gold, as a key component of these markets, sees price fluctuations that not only impact gold investors but also influence broader financial stability and asset allocation.
Looking ahead, the gold market’s trajectory will hinge on further U.S. economic data, the Fed’s monetary policy direction, and the specifics of the "Big & Beautiful" bill’s implementation. In this highly uncertain environment, investors must remain vigilant and exercise rational judgment to navigate potential risks and opportunities.
